AI代理的生态：协作创造起飞人口阈值

AI agents can now conduct real-world cyberattacks, scale up capabilities with the number of agents, and collectively pursue misaligned goals to obtain rewards. Together, these factors raise the risk of a population explosion of misaligned agents: agents could compromise computers and secretly deploy additional agents, creating a self-reinforcing cycle where larger populations develop greater collective cyber capability and expand further. This raises a fundamental question: What determines whether a population of misaligned agents remains contained or takes off into this self-reinforcing cycle? This population-level problem is ecological safety: unlike individual-agent or multi-agent safety with a fixed population, it concerns the dynamics of the population itself. Here, we develop an ecological theory of AI-agent populations based on a population growth equation in which fitness (growth rate) depends on cybersecurity capability. We show that, without collaboration, the population takes off only when individual-agent capability exceeds a critical threshold. With collaboration, however, collective cybersecurity capability increases with population size. This creates a critical population threshold: below it, the population declines; above it, the population takes off, even though individual-agent capability has not changed. In ecology, this phenomenon is known as the strong Allee effect. Because red teaming a small group of agents cannot guarantee ecological safety in larger populations, our theory calls for ecological red teaming and population pacing: gradually deploying larger agent populations in controlled environments, while measuring how cyber capability scales with population size, and estimating the critical population size for takeoff. Capability gains may lower this threshold, requiring re-estimation for each new model generation.

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